I think there maybe a return to traditional mediums soon. As people lose interest in and become overwhelmed by digital media there is a draw to traditional forms. Granted, there will still need to be some adaption to the digital age but I think the focus is shifting.
Im betting Gouache and Watercolor will grow in popularity. Such versatile physical mediums and many digital artists use a software version of watercolor brushes. Digital will always be popular because edits are so easy and new digital tools speed things up a lot. I dont want to consider AI as a category but another tool in the digital toolset.
Yes, also I'm betting there will be new combinations between digital and analog (including puppetry, paper-folding, stop motion, etc.) that no one has thought to try yet.
In my limited circle of artists that I follow, mostly in card game art, traditional media is becoming more popular since it allows the sale of originals. Wizards of the Coast pays Magic the Gathering illustrators $1250 USD per card illustration, but aftermarket sales of originals sell on average for 3000-5000 USD. Combine that with sketches (anything between 50 to 1000 dollars), you're looking at up to the actual commission (from Wizards) to be less than 15% of the whole gig. On average! Well known artists sell their originals in the five figures.
I would guess that AI eats the digital sector and that non-AI digital painting goes almost entirely away, so the illustrations that most people see will be 80% AI generated and 20% from physical media. Non-AI digital painting will be seen as not-different-enough to justify the expense.
Maybe pastels. On the one hand, there are the extremely versatile, rich and vibrant oil pastels (which feel and look a bit like oil painting, and are very easy to scan faithfully, unlike watercolours!). And on the other hand, I see a huge rise in soft pastels, but specifically the PanPastel type. The great thing about both is that there is no drying time like for wet techniques, and they are playful - a quality that every illustrator loves!
Digital can go do one. I think trad will return with a vengeance.
The internet is slowly becoming unworkable and over-run with low grade slop.
Real brushes don’t crash. Real pigments land in your eyes without your having to be a slave to the screen. Real paper/canvas/card won’t vanish with a solar flare, corrupted file/whim of a tech edgelord.
Digital might be splitting into two sections between 2D and 3D. I’m looking forward to VR 3D world painting. Pretty cool stuff made with the VR app Quill. It’s also getting popular with traditional artist to use AR to map out a wall/canvas to paint their image at a larger scale
After 25 years of digital retouching, I view traditional acrylic and watercolor painting as a special retreat from the noise of the digital world. Now I just need to figure out how to make a living using 19th century skills.
I feel torn. Digital art has a place in the art world. On the other hand. I see similarities of digital music. The ability to have a music career without ever picking up a musical instrument. Made it hard to compete for the traditional music Industry
I'm curious to see what might happen in a few years because of the impact of AI. I know I stopped using Pinterest a couple of years ago - searching for furniture design ideas seemed to be 90+% AI-generated and unrealistic slop. I remember seeing courses in 2024-2025 that talked about making money by rapidly generating and posting slop on social media platforms. Digital spaces have been so dominated by ad business that is prone to supporting AI-generated slop, I have to look for "clearly human curated" like this Substack. So I just suspect digital painting will fade a bit, because, well, I suspect there's less of a market for it.
Also, I'm definitely seeing a growing counterculture that is rejecting technology more broadly. But I can't tell if that will cause traditional media to dominate broadly, or just, for specific places, like fine art you hang on the wall.
Personally, I'm getting back into studying drawing and painting, and I'm experimenting with digital tools to prepare the reference I then use for the final piece, which is done traditionally. This is actually kinda fun, but I suspect I'll never use anything digital in the final form. It's just to build ideas. I'm not even sure how that would be "counted"
I think it'll be split between sub categories of digital, like VR sculpting, and advanced forms of traditional media. For example I'm seeing various makers (Etsy sellers, as well as Culture Hustle) making really advanced paints with some really interesting pigments that have never been made before. Not just shimmery or "holo" stuff, which can't really be seen on a screen, but also ultra bright pigments, ultra dark, ultra shiny, etc. As for me, I like digital but it can't match the satisfaction I get from having a pen or a brush in my hand.
Humans need and benefit from the physical interaction with our environment. Some car manufacturers are realizing this, with the return of switches and knobs. For artists, think of the interaction of mixing paint, the scents of the materials, the feel of the brush; the sound of swishing your brush in water (or thinner). This creates both an experience and a relationship for the artist with the work itself. Digital has its uses, sure -- but it's relatively dead, cold and sanitary precision makes it a lonely medium.
I think there maybe a return to traditional mediums soon. As people lose interest in and become overwhelmed by digital media there is a draw to traditional forms. Granted, there will still need to be some adaption to the digital age but I think the focus is shifting.
Im betting Gouache and Watercolor will grow in popularity. Such versatile physical mediums and many digital artists use a software version of watercolor brushes. Digital will always be popular because edits are so easy and new digital tools speed things up a lot. I dont want to consider AI as a category but another tool in the digital toolset.
Yes, also I'm betting there will be new combinations between digital and analog (including puppetry, paper-folding, stop motion, etc.) that no one has thought to try yet.
In my limited circle of artists that I follow, mostly in card game art, traditional media is becoming more popular since it allows the sale of originals. Wizards of the Coast pays Magic the Gathering illustrators $1250 USD per card illustration, but aftermarket sales of originals sell on average for 3000-5000 USD. Combine that with sketches (anything between 50 to 1000 dollars), you're looking at up to the actual commission (from Wizards) to be less than 15% of the whole gig. On average! Well known artists sell their originals in the five figures.
I would guess that AI eats the digital sector and that non-AI digital painting goes almost entirely away, so the illustrations that most people see will be 80% AI generated and 20% from physical media. Non-AI digital painting will be seen as not-different-enough to justify the expense.
Maybe pastels. On the one hand, there are the extremely versatile, rich and vibrant oil pastels (which feel and look a bit like oil painting, and are very easy to scan faithfully, unlike watercolours!). And on the other hand, I see a huge rise in soft pastels, but specifically the PanPastel type. The great thing about both is that there is no drying time like for wet techniques, and they are playful - a quality that every illustrator loves!
I'd be interested in seeing another version of this graph where the left axis shows the number of illustrators instead
Kind of interesting to see that Watercolor staying pretty much the same through the years.
Digital can go do one. I think trad will return with a vengeance.
The internet is slowly becoming unworkable and over-run with low grade slop.
Real brushes don’t crash. Real pigments land in your eyes without your having to be a slave to the screen. Real paper/canvas/card won’t vanish with a solar flare, corrupted file/whim of a tech edgelord.
Digital can never replace traditional.
Digital might be splitting into two sections between 2D and 3D. I’m looking forward to VR 3D world painting. Pretty cool stuff made with the VR app Quill. It’s also getting popular with traditional artist to use AR to map out a wall/canvas to paint their image at a larger scale
After 25 years of digital retouching, I view traditional acrylic and watercolor painting as a special retreat from the noise of the digital world. Now I just need to figure out how to make a living using 19th century skills.
It ain’t easy but it is much more fun…😉
I feel torn. Digital art has a place in the art world. On the other hand. I see similarities of digital music. The ability to have a music career without ever picking up a musical instrument. Made it hard to compete for the traditional music Industry
I'm curious to see what might happen in a few years because of the impact of AI. I know I stopped using Pinterest a couple of years ago - searching for furniture design ideas seemed to be 90+% AI-generated and unrealistic slop. I remember seeing courses in 2024-2025 that talked about making money by rapidly generating and posting slop on social media platforms. Digital spaces have been so dominated by ad business that is prone to supporting AI-generated slop, I have to look for "clearly human curated" like this Substack. So I just suspect digital painting will fade a bit, because, well, I suspect there's less of a market for it.
Also, I'm definitely seeing a growing counterculture that is rejecting technology more broadly. But I can't tell if that will cause traditional media to dominate broadly, or just, for specific places, like fine art you hang on the wall.
Personally, I'm getting back into studying drawing and painting, and I'm experimenting with digital tools to prepare the reference I then use for the final piece, which is done traditionally. This is actually kinda fun, but I suspect I'll never use anything digital in the final form. It's just to build ideas. I'm not even sure how that would be "counted"
I think it'll be split between sub categories of digital, like VR sculpting, and advanced forms of traditional media. For example I'm seeing various makers (Etsy sellers, as well as Culture Hustle) making really advanced paints with some really interesting pigments that have never been made before. Not just shimmery or "holo" stuff, which can't really be seen on a screen, but also ultra bright pigments, ultra dark, ultra shiny, etc. As for me, I like digital but it can't match the satisfaction I get from having a pen or a brush in my hand.
Humans need and benefit from the physical interaction with our environment. Some car manufacturers are realizing this, with the return of switches and knobs. For artists, think of the interaction of mixing paint, the scents of the materials, the feel of the brush; the sound of swishing your brush in water (or thinner). This creates both an experience and a relationship for the artist with the work itself. Digital has its uses, sure -- but it's relatively dead, cold and sanitary precision makes it a lonely medium.
I am swimming in pen and inks.